Tuesday’s Top 7 Picks, Including Pirates vs. Citizens and Orioles vs. Sailors

It’s another great day for baseball and another great day for baseball betting. Including a double header between Guardians and Twins, we have a loaded list of 16 games of comprehensive value.

Our analysts participate in four of those games with a variety of betting options, including Pirates vs. Nationals, and Athletics vs. Yankees, and Marlins vs. Cardinals, and Orioles vs. Orioles.

Here are our top bets from Tuesday’s Major League Baseball roster.

MLB Odds and Choices

Pirates first five and complete ML game

pick or pick
Pirates F5 (+102) and ML Game Full (+100)
the book
FanDuel / WynnBET
jugs
Jose Quintana vs Patrick Corbin
the first show
7:05 PM ET

Sean Zerrillo: The Citizens are 3-12 in games started by Patrick Corbin this season. I’ve been betting on southern football on most of those trips and will continue to do so until it shows signs of improvement – or until the market catches up.

For the 2019 National Race World Championships, Corbin’s strike rate minus walk rate or K-BB% was halved (from 20% to 9.9%); The swing stroke rate decreased by 5% (from 14.2% to 9.3%), and its indexes inflated significantly (4.06 xERA, 3.59 xFIP, 3.88 SIERA in 2019; compared to 6.60 xERA, 4.34 xFIP, 4.41 SIERA in 2022).

While Corbyn reports some positive regression in both BABIP (−67 vs .313 career) and strand rate (60.8% vs 72.3% career), his severely affected rate stands at the highest functional level (44.4%).

Corbin’s entire Statcast page painted blue. It ranks among 1-3% of shooters in xERA, xBA, xSLG and xWOBA; It is in the lowest 20 percent in terms of strike rate, hard hit rate, spin rate and barrel rate.

Furthermore, the Patriots’ porous defense compounded its problems – ranking last in both Defense Score Saved (DRS) and above-average (OAA) leftovers.

Conversely, the Pirates play slightly better defense (18 per DRS, 23 per OAA) and have superior relief pitchers.

Furthermore, Jose Quintana has had his best season (4.63 xERA, 3.86 xFIP, 4.12 SIERA) since 2018 while throwing a changeover (24%) more than double his career average (10.1%). While Corbin’s metrics have slipped, Quintana’s swing rate (11.9%) and chase rate (35.4%) are both in the top career markers, so there is some optimism that he can continue to move forward well.

I expected the Pirates to be the favorites in both halves of this match. You can bet the first five rounds or the F5 money line down to -105; And their full in-game cash streak is at +102 or better.


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Top Five Athletics

pick or pick
The first five runs of athletics +150
the book
Caesar
jugs
Frankie Montas vs JB Sears
the first show
7:05 PM ET

Brad Cunningham: Frankie Montas has been one of the bright spots for a very poor Auckland team this year. It has deployed 3.22 xERA, 3.09 xFIP, and only allows .298 xwOBA for opposing hitters.

He has a four-court combination of fast ball, split finger, dip and slide, which hitters had a lot of trouble in contact against considering these four courts have a 34% chase rate, which is in the 91st percent for MLB starting bowlers, in Savant baseball. Also, his gravity is the only pitch that allows xwOBA higher than 0.300.

The Yankees squad has a running value of +29.6 against Montas’ top four, but 21.8 is Aaron Judge, so if he can handle Judge in the lineup he should be able to get some success.

JB Sears is the 23rd potential player for the Yankees and has only competed in seven full rounds in the major leagues, so there’s not much we can glean from this sample size.

FanGraphs has him dropping as a pitcher 4.71 FIP, which isn’t very interesting, but he’s had xFIP around 3.00 in Triple A for the past two years. So even though Oakland has one of the worst lineups in baseball, it’s crazy that the Triple A bowler is the favourite.

I expected Oakland to hit +100 in the first five rounds, so I think there’s tremendous value in Montas at +150 and she’s going to +115.

Charlie Distorco: The fact that I’m going back to the well with the Oakland Athletics Tuesday night makes me nauseous, but the price here is very good.

I no longer have any faith in the Oakland game – the late leads against Seattle and New York were laughable to say the least – instead, I’m looking forward to supporting Frankie Montas over the first five rounds.

Montas has been a breath of fresh air in 2022. His predictable indicators sit around the actual ERA, forcing more balls than previous years and limiting strong contact and barrels.

Opponents have a .242 xBA for a right-handed entry fresh from eight runs from the Mariners’ closing last week.

Opposite him is J.B. Sears, a rookie who isn’t highly rated in the Yankees, and shouldn’t be a favorite at all as a rookie at the big-league level.

I know Bronx bombers are always scary to fade and have the voodoo magic working with them through this consistent late comeback, but I think this is the perfect place to stick your nose up to support Montas and Athletics through the first half of Tuesday night. Game.

Inflation is real Yankee and +150 is too high for a Montas caliber jug. I’ll bring that number back to about +130.


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Juan Ypez’s total rules

pick or pick
Juan Ypez over 1.5 total bases (+140)
the book
kings
jugs
Braxton Jarrett vs Dakota Hudson
the first show
7:45 PM ET

Jules Posner: Juan Ypez is another Cardinal hitter who comes from the minor leagues and starts contributing right away. He’s had a solid season so far, but he’s been especially hot in this last home.

During the first four games of the home platform, it hit 0.313 with 0.625 ISO. He had a multi-run performance at home on Monday night, giving him three home runs in his last two games, but he’s also been outperforming LHP at home for the past month as well.

Over the past month, Yepez has been 3 for 7 against LHP at home and all of his hits have gone for extra bases. He seems to have gotten very comfortable in the cards’ DH spot.

Braxton Garrett starts first for the Marlins and over the course of his previous two runs, right-handed hitters hit .296 and hit .481 against him. Additionally, three of the eight hits he surrendered to right-handed hitters at that start went for extra bases.

Yepez has cleared 1.5 total bases in three of his last four matches and his total base odds is at +140. Paul Goldschmidt was another option at 1.5 at -120 odds, but the value on the Yepez is too good to be missed. Play this as long as it contains extra money.


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Orioles Total Team

pick or pick
The Orioles Total Over 3 (-120)
the book
Caesar
jugs
Dean Kramer vs. Robbie Ray
the first show
10:10 PM ET

DJ James: Robbie Ray has had a very rough month. In fact, he may be starting to live up to his pre-season contract with the Seattle Mariners. However, it is not without its drawbacks. His average exit speed is 90.2 mph and his hard hit rate is 40%, which ranks 40 percent of the MLB.

On Tuesday, one of the hottest teams in baseball will face a left-handed pitcher. This Oriole has a 159 wRC+ stop from South Bowth in June with .374 Team OBP and .528 lag. The O has eight hitters on .340 xwOBA and five on .400 xwOBA.

In fact, of those hitters, five have exceeded an average exit speed of 90 mph, so the Orioles should have plenty of opportunities to overtake their team’s total.

Seattle has one of the best bulls this month with 3.53 xFIP, but it’s not without problems. This team’s total should be close to 4, so take the increments from 3 (-120) to 4 (-110). Baltimore should be able to hit it with Ray still in the game.


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Orioles Moneyline

pick or pick
Oriole +150
the book
BetRivers
jugs
Dean Kramer vs. Robbie Ray
the first show
10:10 PM ET

Anthony Dapondo: Baltimore has always been undervalued because its promotion has been huge year-over-year improvements compared to the 2021 Orioles.

Look no further than Dean Kremer, who has made major improvements with his driving and hit rates. Kramer had problems walking in his first two stints in the majors, but he has cut his walking rate from 10.2% to 5.8% this season. He’s also dramatically lowered his barrel rate to the point where he’s better than the league average at 66 hitters, a small but not insignificant sample.

Cramer relies heavily on his change of communication and exit, and the Mariners are modest against the change this season. Throwing injuries further weakened the Seattle lineup and I loved the game for Kramer on Tuesday night.

Robbie Ray isn’t a floorball pitcher, he’ll be facing a lot of right bats on Tuesday and the wind is blowing straight for this game. Orioles still split their faction much better when facing south on the hill. This should be especially true on the trail where the left field wall at Camden Yards is less important.

These two starting bowlers are generally not far apart, given that Ray’s predicted scales are around 4.00. The Orioles have their best arms available too – Felix Bautista and Jorge Lopez – so they are too big to be underdogs on Tuesday. I was going to play Baltimore until +130.

Tony Sartori: Baltimore won Monday’s game 9-2, and I expect to see more of the same on Tuesday night as Dean Kramer is set to take over the Orioles Hill. By four starts this season, Kremer is 2-1 with 1.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

During those four games, Baltimore won three of those games (75%). Although the sample size is about as small as you can get, it’s worth noting that this Mariners lineup is built from 0 to 9 with five hits against Kremer.

Cramer’s follow-up is one of baseball’s most exciting games. Since May 1, the Orioles have ranked fourth in the league in ERA, 12th in BA, 8th in SLG and 8th in wOBA.

This promo crew should also get plenty of support during the run as the Orioles are set to take on a left-handed Ruby Ray. Through 15 starts this season, Ray is 6-6 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

With 102 career career appearances against Ray, this Baltimore lineup features .302 BA, .552 SLG and .379 wOBA. The trends in this showdown also support the Orioles as they have won eight of their last 11 games (73%) while the Mariners have lost seven of their last 13 games (54%).

I would like to play Orioles ML all the way to (+130).


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