Is David Frost’s claim that Brexit is almost stacked? | Britain’s exit from the European Union

On 23 June 2016, just over half of the UK’s electorate, 51.9%, supported leaving the European Union, sending shockwaves around the world as the UK began the painful process of divorce from the bloc.

The result also sowed the seeds for one of the most divisive periods in British political history, with the resignation of two Conservative prime ministers, the sacking of 21 Tory rebels, and an all-out victory for Boris Johnson over his “furnace” promise. Brexit deal ready.

Now on the sixth anniversary of the referendum, one of the central figures in the pursuit of that deal has issued his verdict: “Brexit is working,” says Lord Frost, adding that those who say it hits the economy have an “axe-grind”.

Are Frost Claims Accumulating?

David Frost insists Brexit is working and claims critics have ‘axe to grind’ – VIDEO

Does Brexit work?

While it may be too early to tell if his statement can be backed up by evidence, Anand Menon, Professor of European Policy and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London and the UK’s Director of a Changing Europe, was asked to examine it differently. What evidence in the future will convince him of the failure of Britain’s exit from the European Union?

His response was: “An interesting question.” The answer was not in trade figures, but in domestic politics. Was Britain’s divisions to be healed?

One clue to failure would be if we were still discussing this in five or six years in the same way. I think to be successful it has to settle into the British system of government.”

Economics – What Lord Frost says:

He said the predictions of a 4% contraction in Britain’s gross domestic product used by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) were not a fact but “zombie numbers” based on a 2018 Government Economic Services report that relied on academic studies of the impact of openness on “former communist and former authoritarian economies.” which is poorly managed.

He was referring to a 79-page report, Leaving the European Union: A Technical Reference Paper for Long-Term Economic Analysis, which looked at five models of Brexit deals and their impact on 12 regions of the United Kingdom taking into account trade and non-trade barriers.

But Frost said his forecast “couldn’t be backed up by objective analysis” with the UK growing “at the same pace as other G7 nations since the referendum and exports of goods to the EU” at an all-time high.

He also argued that the exact impact of Brexit may never be known as the trade numbers were murky due to disruption caused by the pandemic and the supply chain and method crisis in Ukraine.

What others say:

Four years later, the Budget Office maintained its forecast. Its latest forecast, March 2022, said Frost’s trade deal would “reduce long-term productivity by 4% compared to remaining in the EU”.

He said this reflected his view that “the increase in non-tariff barriers” such as red tape and compliance with standards is “an obstacle to the exploitation of comparative advantage”.

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OECD figures showed that the UK was ahead of France, Italy, Germany and Japan in the percentage change in GDP between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2022, but behind the European Union as a whole, and significantly behind the United States, and Australia. and the Group of Twenty as a whole.

A report by Resolutions this week said Britain has seen a sharp decline in trade openness (total trade as a share of GDP) since 2019, down eight percentage points. This compares with a two percentage point drop for France, she added.

The full effect of TCA [trade and cooperation agreement] It will take years to feel, but this is a move toward a more closed economy,” the authors said.

“Early evidence points to an impact of Brexit and recent Resolutions analysis suggests this will be significant in the medium term,” Menon said.

Northern Ireland Protocol: What Frost says:

This remains the unfinished business on Brexit and the “biggest problem” caused by Brexit. “The delicately balanced compromise that we put in place in 2019, while acknowledging that we face high levels of risk in doing so, has disintegrated much more quickly than most of us thought,” Frost said.

He blamed the European Union, which said it was refusing to consider settlements despite the sensitivities.

What others say:

This is fully consistent with government policy, which has been met with a chorus of disapproval by many parties and support within the Brexit backbench community and conditional support with the unionist community in Northern Ireland.

Is there anything else?

Reports over the weekend suggested that Frost had some input in crafting the controversial bill to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

But unwritten notes indicate that there was no meeting of minds. He expressed his surprise that the Article 16 mechanism had not been activated, arguing that it would have been a “faster” way to resolve the dispute with the EU.

This can reinforce the view that the government’s plan has all along been to present legislation as a blunt negotiating tool.

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